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2011年6月6日星期一

Obama Retools 2008 Machine for Tough Run

Under the cover of an intensifying Republican nominating contest, the Obama campaign’s top fund-raisers gathered for their first meeting here last week. To galvanize them, they were shown a presentation of potential rivals, including Sarah Palin, and given access to senior advisers to the president, including the White House chief of staff, William M. Daley.


They pledged to reach a fund-raising goal of $60 million for the campaign and party before June 30 as a first installment to create a state-by-state organization. Their goals include reactivating the network of faithful supporters, registering young and Latino voters and fighting restrictive new election laws in battleground states now led by Republicans.


While Mr. Obama will not fully engage in campaign activity until next year, aides said, he is embarking on weekly economic-focused trips throughout the summer. Doing so will allow him to use his bully pulpit to show that he is focused on addressing joblessness, the issue that more than any other could shape his electoral prospects and that Republicans are using to assert that his policies have failed.


He will also continue to be the main draw in a fund-raising campaign that has a goal of taking in at least $750 million by Election Day, which would match his 2008 figure even though he does not face the long primary battle that he did four years ago.


“I’m confident that the things that we can control, we will do a good job on,” said David Axelrod, the president’s senior political strategist, who returned to Chicago to help with the re-election effort.


The campaign is shaping up as a test of whether the much-vaunted organizing abilities of Mr. Obama and his team can offset the headwinds he faces. In battleground states, volunteers are fanning out by the thousands to reach out to neighbors who helped Mr. Obama in his first presidential campaign and persuade them to re-up.


Campaign officials said they know that in some cases, 2008 supporters will have to be coached to overcome what they see as disappointment that Mr. Obama has not achieved as much as they hoped. Several thousand times a week, still-committed volunteers knock on the doors of potential new recruits and neighbors involved four years ago to see if they will join in. The idea is to get face-to-face, neighbor-to-neighbor commitments that will have more staying power than those collected by strangers over the phone.


And in the re-election nerve center here, where a handmade calendar counts down the more than 520 days that remain before the election, campaign officials are sorting through census and polling data as they work to chart a variety of routes to the 270 electoral votes Mr. Obama will need to clinch a second term.


The early focus is on the same collection of states that Mr. Obama carried in 2008, with the exception of Indiana, which advisers believe is out of reach. But among these, strategists are digging deeper into Colorado, Florida, Nevada, North Carolina and Virginia — where census figures show surging populations of Hispanics and blacks, groups that supported Mr. Obama in 2008 by wide margins. The campaign sees possibilities for gains, for example, around Charlotte, N.C., which is where Mr. Obama chose to hold his party’s nominating convention next year, a decision that aides said signaled how serious they are about competing in North Carolina.


So far, the regrouping of the campaign is a methodical, nuts-and-bolts operation. It is oriented toward rekindling a grass-roots movement that had been the envy of Republicans in 2008 but has shown severe signs of strain over two years of partisan rancor in Washington and economic struggle across the country.


But for all of the planning, the biggest challenges of the election remain largely out of the organizers’ control, as the bleak jobs report on Friday showed.


So uncertain are the economic indicators that Mr. Obama’s aides say they have not fully settled on an overarching campaign theme for next year.


For now, the president faces a delicate task in arguing that things have improved under his watch when they remain so grim for so many — and that the programs he has put in place are working but need time to show their benefits. With their hopes dashed of substantial improvement in unemployment anytime soon, aides indicated that the theme was likely to be less “morning in America” and more “don’t change horses in midstream.”


Mr. Axelrod said: “We’re not going to be putting up a ‘Mission Accomplished’ sign. Part of the message is going to be we have to see these things through.”


In an interview at his Chicago consulting offices, Mr. Axelrod repeatedly said “stability” for the middle class would be central.


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2011年4月23日星期六

Cash Crunch for G.O.P. Freshmen in Tough Districts

But if he wants to be something other than a historical footnote, he may have to match or exceed the more than $6.2 million he raised last year, when he defeated Ron Klein, the Democratic incumbent.


It is a tall order, and so far he is off to a slow start.


Figures released by the Federal Election Commission last week showed that Mr. West raised more than $433,000 in the first quarter of the year, ranking third among all freshman Republicans. And he has already spent much of that, mostly on direct-mail fund-raising and other expenses. During the same reporting period in the 2010 campaign, Mr. West raised just over $839,000.


Two Democrats challenging Mr. West for the 2012 election, Patrick Murphy, a businessman, and Lois J. Frankel, a former mayor of West Palm Beach, did fairly well in the first quarter of 2011, raising $352,000 and $250,000 respectively.


Mr. West is one of more than two dozen Republican freshmen facing tough re-election battles in Congressional districts that lean Democratic or were won by President Obama in 2008. Others include Michael G. Grimm and Nan Hayworth of New York, Robert Hurt of Virginia, Patrick Meehan of Pennsylvania, David Schweikert of Arizona and Steve Stivers of Ohio.


Mr. Grimm, Ms. Hayworth and Mr. Meehan all raised less in this reporting period than they did a year ago.


Over all, the average amount raised in the first quarter by the freshman class was $175,000 — compared with nearly $300,000 that Democratic freshmen raised in the same period in 2009 and nearly $250,000 in 2007.


Despite the numbers, Republican officials said they were not worried.


“The priority this quarter has been to cut reckless government spending and set up their new offices and constituents’ operation,” said Joanna Burgos, a spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee. “Nevertheless, Republican freshmen did an exceptional job garnering overwhelming support that will help them build strong campaigns that will put them on the path to victory.”


Democratic Party officials, not surprisingly, take heart in the reports for the quarter.


“Their weak fund-raising is our strength,” said Representative Steve Israel of New York, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “The first-quarter totals are a critical benchmark.”


Charlie Cook, editor and publisher of The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan newsletter that tracks Congressional races, said the freshman Republican fund-raising numbers were intriguing, but cautioned against reading too much into them at this point.


“It’s interesting if it holds up,” Mr. Cook said. “But I wouldn’t get too worked up about it until the second or third quarter. If the trend holds, then I think you have to starting looking at it seriously.”


The highest total for the quarter by a freshman Republican was nearly $1 million reported by Diane Black of Tennessee, who won the seat vacated by Bart Gordon, a Democrat who had represented the district since 1985. However, the bulk of that was a $667,000 loan Ms. Black made to her campaign, with about $235,000 contributed by individuals and political action committees. She has spent more than $700,000 so far, a large part of it on fund-raising.


David B. McKinley of West Virginia brought in the most in total contributions of all the freshman Republicans: $539,000. Though the seat he won had been held by a Democrat since 1969, political analysts said Mr. McKinley would probably face little Democratic opposition, given the conservative nature of his district.


Other freshman lawmakers from districts considered less competitive raised less money in the first quarter, including Rob Woodall of Georgia, who reported $8,725, and Larry Bucshon of Indiana, who brought in $45,330. Neither was expected to have serious Democratic challengers.


Most of the money for freshman Republicans came from people, not PACs, which the party says reflects the enthusiasm of its core supporters. But despite the anti-Washington wave many freshman rode to electoral victory, as a group they still raised more than $5 million from political action committees, businesses and trade groups that included corporate political action committees and lobbyists.


Leading the pack were Mr. Stivers of Ohio, whose contributors included Goldman Sachs and the lobbying firm Holland & Knight; Ms. Black got money from Goldman, Bank of America and the lobbying firm Akin Gump.


Democratic opposition is not the only thing some Republican freshmen have to worry about. Congressional redistricting in several states could reduce the number of districts and leave some new lawmakers facing one another in primary races.


In Louisiana, the state eliminated a district because of a decline in population after Hurricane Katrina struck nearly six years ago. This has put Representative Jeff Landry into the district now represented by another Republican, Charles Boustany Jr., who was first elected in 2004.


Mr. Boustany holds a significant fund-raising advantage, with $694,000 cash on hand for the reporting period, compared with $171,000 for Mr. Landry, who has declined to say whether he will seek re-election.


In Illinois, Republicans won four Congressional seats from Democrats in November. But at least one of those seats will be eliminated in redistricting, a move that is likely to affect one of the four freshmen — Robert Dold, Adam Kinzinger, Bobby Schilling and Joe Walsh. Among them, Mr. Schilling reported raising the least in the quarter, just under $80,000. The other three each raised at least $270,000.


This article has been revised to reflect the following correction:


Correction: April 23, 2011


An article on Friday about the campaign fund-raising efforts of freshman Republicans in Congress misstated the amount of cash on hand that Representative Charles Boustany, a Republican of Louisiana, reported as of March 31. It was $694,000 — not $561,000, which was the amount he reported as of Dec. 31, 2010.