Payrolls Show Strong Growth but Jobless Rate Rises

Employers added 244,000 jobs in April, more than economists had forecast and an increase from 221,000 in March, the government reported on Friday.

As a measure of how far uphill the economic climb remains, though, the unemployment rate actually nudged up to 9 percent, from 8.8 percent a month earlier. The Labor Department uses a different survey, of households rather than employers, to calculate that rate, which tends to be volatile.

The monthly snapshot of the job market showed that government workers continued to receive pink slips, but the private sector more than picked up the slack, adding 268,000 jobs in April, the most in five years. Hiring was spread broadly, with manufacturing, retail, health care, and leisure and hospitality industries all expanding.

Including some revisions to reflect more hiring in February and March, the nation’s employers have added an average of 192,000 jobs a month this year, compared with just 78,000 monthly last year.

“This is very encouraging for the sustainability of the recovery,” said James F. O’Sullivan, chief economist at MF Global.

Another brighter sign was among the long-term unemployed. The number of people out of work for more than six months eased to 5.8 million, its lowest level since October 2009. Still, 13.7 million people remained without work and were still looking.

Earlier in the week, a number of reports indicated that the economy had stumbled in the days since the Labor Department compiled its survey. The biggest worry was a rise in new claims for unemployment insurance, and a survey of companies showed a slowdown in new orders and hiring.

Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist with the Economic Outlook Group, has spent most of the last year as a strong optimist, but sounds increasingly cautious.

“There are just too many economic indicators that point to an economy that has been slowing,” said Mr. Baumohl, noting last week’s report that output slumped to 1.8 percent in the first quarter of the year. “It almost looks like a bull that’s charging through a crowd, utterly impervious to what’s in front of it.

“Regretfully, I think the pace of hiring will slow down in May and June,” he added. “I think in this case the job market is a lagging indicator, and I think it will probably fall off as well, as more signs point to a weakening economy.”

President Obama, speaking at Allison Transmission, a maker of transmissions that is increasingly moving into hybrid products, hailed the job numbers while acknowledging headwinds from high gas prices and interruptions caused by the earthquake in Japan. “There are always going to be some ups and downs like these as we come out of a recession,” he said. “But the fact is that we are still making progress.

“And that proves how resilient the American economy is, and how resilient the American worker is, and that we can take a hit and we can keep on going forward.”?

Manufacturing has been one of the surprising pillars of the recovery, adding back 250,000 of the 2.3 million jobs it lost during the recession. In April, it grew by 29,000 jobs, up from 22,000 in March.

A weakened dollar has helped exports, and companies are describing an increase in demand at home. Quality Float Works, a family-owned company that makes floating metal balls and valves in Schaumburg, Ill., shrank by six workers during the recession. Since the beginning of the year, it has hired two people and aims to hire two more.

Jason W. Speer, vice president and general manager, said that although high prices for energy and raw materials had temporarily made the firm hesitate, “we’ve been getting long-term commitments from our customers, and we have felt fairly comfortable.” He added: “I can easily see hiring two or more before the end of the year, if we have no more bumps.”

Economists who saw signs of lasting momentum said they did not believe a few hiccups in coming months would derail the recovery this time. “I do view this impending softness as a temporary response to the rise in oil prices,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief United States economist at the High Frequency Economics research firm, “not a fundamental reversal.”

Austan Goolsbee, the chairman of the president’s Council of Economic Advisers, said several signs pointed to continuing strength in hiring, including slower productivity gains after a fairly sharp run-up. After companies squeeze all they can out of their existing workers, they need to add more. “This is clearly the track you want to be on to plow your way,” Mr. Goolsbee said.

Average hourly earnings increased by 3 cents, to $22.95, and the average workweek was flat at 34.3 hours. Heather Boushey, senior economist at the liberal Center for American Progress, said she was concerned that neither wages nor hours were moving strongly upward, as would be expected if companies were wringing all they could out of their existing workers. “We’re not out of the woods,” she said. “As much as I think it would be such a relief to say, ‘Hey, this is the out-of-the-woods report.’?”

Among job seekers, the least educated, African-Americans and teenagers continue to have the highest unemployment rates. For workers in the 55-and-over age group, the average duration of unemployment spiked to 53.6 weeks, compared with 39.4 weeks for those younger.

A weak area was government — local, state and federal — where the work force contracted by 24,000 jobs. Construction added 5,000 jobs, though mostly because of gains in heavy and civil engineering, probably helped by the remaining federal stimulus dollars devoted to infrastructure projects like highways. Most other segments of construction, including residential, shrank.

Temporary help, which has been strong, lost 2,300 jobs. Executives of two temporary services companies, Tig Gilliam, chief executive of the Adecco Group North America, and Jorge Perez, senior vice president of North America for Manpower, said companies that had relied on contract workers early in the recovery were now hiring.

Amanda Fisher, who was laid off from her hostess job at a high-end restaurant in New York City last October, applied for work with Manpower in November. After a couple of jobs in retail, she took an assignment as a customer service representative at a furniture company. Last month, the company offered her a full-time job with benefits.

“I have a real grown-up job,” said Ms. Fisher, 21, who said she spent eight months out of work and was intermittently homeless early in the recession. Several of her friends, she said, were still “in terrible situations.”

This article has been revised to reflect the following correction:

Correction: May 6, 2011

Because of an editing error, an earlier version of this article misstated, in one reference, the reason for the increase in the unemployment rate. As the article noted elsewhere, the rate was based on a household survey, which showed a decline in employment; it did not reflect an increase in the number of job seekers.

View the original article here

Payrolls Show Strong Growth but Jobless Rate Rises

Employers added 244,000 jobs in April, more than economists had forecast and an increase from 221,000 in March, the government reported on Friday.

As a measure of how far uphill the economic climb remains, though, the unemployment rate actually nudged up to 9 percent, from 8.8 percent a month earlier. The Labor Department uses a different survey, of households rather than employers, to calculate that rate, which tends to be volatile.

The monthly snapshot of the job market showed that government workers continued to receive pink slips, but the private sector more than picked up the slack, adding 268,000 jobs in April, the most in five years. Hiring was spread broadly, with manufacturing, retail, health care, and leisure and hospitality industries all expanding.

Including some revisions to reflect more hiring in February and March, the nation’s employers have added an average of 192,000 jobs a month this year, compared with just 78,000 monthly last year.

“This is very encouraging for the sustainability of the recovery,” said James F. O’Sullivan, chief economist at MF Global.

Another brighter sign was among the long-term unemployed. The number of people out of work for more than six months eased to 5.8 million, its lowest level since October 2009. Still, 13.7 million people remained without work and were still looking.

Earlier in the week, a number of reports indicated that the economy had stumbled in the days since the Labor Department compiled its survey. The biggest worry was a rise in new claims for unemployment insurance, and a survey of companies showed a slowdown in new orders and hiring.

Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist with the Economic Outlook Group, has spent most of the last year as a strong optimist, but sounds increasingly cautious.

“There are just too many economic indicators that point to an economy that has been slowing,” said Mr. Baumohl, noting last week’s report that output slumped to 1.8 percent in the first quarter of the year. “It almost looks like a bull that’s charging through a crowd, utterly impervious to what’s in front of it.

“Regretfully, I think the pace of hiring will slow down in May and June,” he added. “I think in this case the job market is a lagging indicator, and I think it will probably fall off as well, as more signs point to a weakening economy.”

President Obama, speaking at Allison Transmission, a maker of transmissions that is increasingly moving into hybrid products, hailed the job numbers while acknowledging headwinds from high gas prices and interruptions caused by the earthquake in Japan. “There are always going to be some ups and downs like these as we come out of a recession,” he said. “But the fact is that we are still making progress.

“And that proves how resilient the American economy is, and how resilient the American worker is, and that we can take a hit and we can keep on going forward.”?

Manufacturing has been one of the surprising pillars of the recovery, adding back 250,000 of the 2.3 million jobs it lost during the recession. In April, it grew by 29,000 jobs, up from 22,000 in March.

A weakened dollar has helped exports, and companies are describing an increase in demand at home. Quality Float Works, a family-owned company that makes floating metal balls and valves in Schaumburg, Ill., shrank by six workers during the recession. Since the beginning of the year, it has hired two people and aims to hire two more.

Jason W. Speer, vice president and general manager, said that although high prices for energy and raw materials had temporarily made the firm hesitate, “we’ve been getting long-term commitments from our customers, and we have felt fairly comfortable.” He added: “I can easily see hiring two or more before the end of the year, if we have no more bumps.”

Economists who saw signs of lasting momentum said they did not believe a few hiccups in coming months would derail the recovery this time. “I do view this impending softness as a temporary response to the rise in oil prices,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief United States economist at the High Frequency Economics research firm, “not a fundamental reversal.”

Austan Goolsbee, the chairman of the president’s Council of Economic Advisers, said several signs pointed to continuing strength in hiring, including slower productivity gains after a fairly sharp run-up. After companies squeeze all they can out of their existing workers, they need to add more. “This is clearly the track you want to be on to plow your way,” Mr. Goolsbee said.

Average hourly earnings increased by 3 cents, to $22.95, and the average workweek was flat at 34.3 hours. Heather Boushey, senior economist at the liberal Center for American Progress, said she was concerned that neither wages nor hours were moving strongly upward, as would be expected if companies were wringing all they could out of their existing workers. “We’re not out of the woods,” she said. “As much as I think it would be such a relief to say, ‘Hey, this is the out-of-the-woods report.’?”

Among job seekers, the least educated, African-Americans and teenagers continue to have the highest unemployment rates. For workers in the 55-and-over age group, the average duration of unemployment spiked to 53.6 weeks, compared with 39.4 weeks for those younger.

A weak area was government — local, state and federal — where the work force contracted by 24,000 jobs. Construction added 5,000 jobs, though mostly because of gains in heavy and civil engineering, probably helped by the remaining federal stimulus dollars devoted to infrastructure projects like highways. Most other segments of construction, including residential, shrank.

Temporary help, which has been strong, lost 2,300 jobs. Executives of two temporary services companies, Tig Gilliam, chief executive of the Adecco Group North America, and Jorge Perez, senior vice president of North America for Manpower, said companies that had relied on contract workers early in the recovery were now hiring.

Amanda Fisher, who was laid off from her hostess job at a high-end restaurant in New York City last October, applied for work with Manpower in November. After a couple of jobs in retail, she took an assignment as a customer service representative at a furniture company. Last month, the company offered her a full-time job with benefits.

“I have a real grown-up job,” said Ms. Fisher, 21, who said she spent eight months out of work and was intermittently homeless early in the recession. Several of her friends, she said, were still “in terrible situations.”

This article has been revised to reflect the following correction:

Correction: May 6, 2011

Because of an editing error, an earlier version of this article misstated, in one reference, the reason for the increase in the unemployment rate. As the article noted elsewhere, the rate was based on a household survey, which showed a decline in employment; it did not reflect an increase in the number of job seekers.

View the original article here

New Census Finds China’s Population Growth Has Slowed

BEIJING — China’s population grew more urbanized, educated and older as the growth of the world’s most populous nation slowed to a pace half that of the previous decade, results of the 2010 census released on Thursday indicated.

The census also documented a vast internal migration, concluding that more than 261 million citizens — nearly one in five — were living in places other than where China’s household registration process had indicated that they did. Most of those are probably migrant laborers who have swelled big cities in search of higher-paying jobs so as to send money back to families that remain in rural areas.

The government said China’s population was 1.34 billion, an increase of 73.9 million, or 5.8 percent, from the last tally in 2000. That was below the 1.4 billion that United Nations demographers were predicting when the head count was conducted last November, and the slowest rate of growth in nearly half a century, demographers said.

The average household size shrank by 10 percent, to 3.1 people, and the urban population surged by more than 45 percent, leaving urban and rural Chinese nearly equal in number, the census indicated.

Wang Feng, head of the Center for Public Policy at Tsinghua University in Beijing, said the data show that China “has completely turned a page in its demographic history.”

“It is now a post-transitional population, with very low fertility, quite low mortality, and is being increasingly urbanized,” he said in an e-mail on Thursday. “Such a highly mobile society produces a tremendous dynamism for the Chinese economy and society, and at the same time poses great challenges for the government’s political control.”

Mr. Wang also said that documentation of a rapidly aging society raised new questions about China’s population-control policies, which since 1980 have limited many families to a single child. But President Hu Jintao struck a cautious note in a speech on Tuesday, the state news service Xinhua reported, telling a bureau of the Communist Party’s Central Committee that China should “stick to and improve its current family planning policy and maintain a low birthrate.”

For a country dead set on joining the ranks of the globe’s most advanced nations, the huge count yielded both promising and disturbing results.

The share of Chinese who were educated rose sharply. University graduates are now about 8.9 out of 100 citizens, an increase of about 2.5 times, and rates of those who have graduated from high school and vocational schools also rose, though not as much.

Yu Xie, a professor of sociology, statistics and population studies at the University of Michigan, said the increase in the number of college-educated Chinese would “place China in a better position in international competition for economic growth.”

“Future economic growth will not only come from manufacturing but from services and high technology,” he said, which will require better-educated workers. “China is already prepared for a post-industrial transition.”

But the figures also revealed less promising trends. They confirmed a yawning gender gap, with 118 male newborns for every 100 females, a disparity researchers blame partly on family planning policies that they say have encouraged abortions of female fetuses.

The population aged markedly: the share of Chinese under age 15 dropped 6.3 percent, while that of those over 60 rose by 2.93 percent. That presages a shrinking labor market, which economists predict will increase pressure for higher wages and divert a gusher of government money into pensions, medical care and other services for the elderly.

The growing proportion of older people can be explained partly by China’s low fertility rate in recent decades, with fewer births to offset the aged. Cai Yong, a demographer at the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, said the number of children under 15 was even lower than expected, pointing to a fertility rate of about 1.4 children per woman.

That is significantly below the government’s estimated fertility rate of 1.8, and should put pressure on China’s leaders to loosen family planning policies, he said.

Ma Jianting, the director of China’s National Bureau of Statistics, said at a news conference on Thursday that the slowed rate of population growth showed that the one-child policy had “eased the pressure on resources and the environment and laid a relatively good foundation for steady and rapid economic and social development.”

But he suggested that the population’s rapid aging was a matter of potential concern. “We also need to pay close attention to the new changes of our population structure, adhering to the family planning policy while cautiously and gradually improving the policy to promote more balanced population growth in the country,” the state-run Xinhua news agency quoted him as saying.

 

In WikiLeaks’ Growth, Some Control Is Lost

WikiLeaks’ latest release — files related to the detainees at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba — took place Sunday in partnership with eight news organizations in the United States and other countries, including The Washington Post and the McClatchy newspapers and The Telegraph of London. The “official” release was sped up when WikiLeaks learned that two news organizations that were collaborators with WikiLeaks in the past but were explicitly shut out this time — The New York Times and The Guardian — were preparing their own Guantánamo stories anyway, having obtained the information independently.

This resulted in a mad scramble to be first online with secrets that would never have leaked so quickly if WikiLeaks had not possessed the documents to begin with. For journalism, it was a recalibration of the traditional relationships among competitors and sources. And for WikiLeaks, it was a lesson in how hard it is to steer news coverage rather than be buffeted by it.

In its first prominent collaboration with newspapers, last July, WikiLeaks gave exclusive access to a secret archive of Afghan war logs to The Times, The Guardian in Britain, and Der Spiegel in Germany. Now, as it gradually releases 250,000 United States diplomatic cables, WikiLeaks says it has more than 50 local partners, most of them newspapers, from the Daily Taraf in Turkey to Expresso in Portugal to The Hindu in India. Some of those newspapers describe the relationship with WikiLeaks as a contract.

WikiLeaks’ intent has always been to maximize its impact, but its media strategy has changed significantly since it began in 2007, with the idea that if it posted important documents to its site — come one, come all — journalists would eagerly report the news there. Since then, it has learned the value of an “exclusive” to journalists, creating partnerships with publishers that impose a collective embargo on when the material can be published in return for privileged access to the material.

On its Twitter page, WikiLeaks suggested that it did not mind that it had lost control of its cache of secrets, saying it was pleased that its former partner publications had “added their weight to increasing our impact.”

Yochai Benkler, the co-director of the Berkman Center for Internet and Society at Harvard University, said he thought that WikiLeaks’ anti-secrecy quest was “enhanced, not undermined, by the intensification of competition to cover the documents.” The Guantánamo files, he said, confirmed what the earlier releases already suggested: that “the future of the networked Fourth Estate will involve a mixture of traditional and online models, cooperating and competing on a global scale in a productive but difficult relationship.”

In an essay this month in the British magazine New Statesman, the founder of WikiLeaks, Julian Assange, explained his reasoning. While he described WikiLeaks as “firmly in the tradition of those radical publishers who tried to lay ‘all the mysteries and secrets of government’ before the public,” he added that “for reasons of realpolitik, we have worked with some of the largest media groups.”

While the exclusive-access strategy has had obvious advantages in getting the news out, WikiLeaks faced criticism for allowing only a few news organizations to have access to the cables, said Greg Mitchell, a blogger for The Nation who published “The Age of WikiLeaks.” “Now,” he said, “it’s busting loose and other people are getting them.”

That owes partly to the falling out between Mr. Assange and The Times and The Guardian.

Bill Keller, the executive editor of The Times, said Mr. Assange seemed to sour on the newspaper after he read both a front-page profile of himself and an article about the Army intelligence analyst suspected of leaking information to WikiLeaks. The profile he deemed unflattering and the other article inadequate. He also complained to Mr. Keller that the newspaper’s Web site had not linked to the WikiLeaks site. “Where’s the respect?” he asked Mr. Keller.

Mr. Keller said Monday, “It’s been a long time since I’ve had any communication with Julian Assange.”

In essays and interviews Mr. Assange has complained that The Times had worked too closely with the United States government before publishing its material and had a “hostile attitude” toward WikiLeaks.