If, two years ago, reports of Timothy F. Geithner possibly leaving had reached the White House, some advisers would have seized on them as an opportunity; President Barack Obama’s Treasury secretary got off to a very rocky start and was considered a short-termer.
Today, if rumblings that he is thinking about stepping down made their way to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave., there would be near-panic. Mr. Geithner is as close to an indispensable figure as there is in the Obama administration.
The 49-year-old Treasury chief is unrivaled in economic policy making in the administration, commands respect in Asia and Europe, and is a presidential favorite.
Some associates say that in recent months, he has ruminated privately about leaving before the end of this term, perhaps when the battle over the debt ceiling is resolved this summer. A few knowledgeable people take this seriously; most doubt it.
It is understandable that Mr. Geithner at times feels spent. He was the head of the New York Federal Reserve beginning in 2003. In his final year in that post, 2008, he was at the epicenter of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. He then took on the Treasury job, starting with a contentious confirmation and embarrassing initial public performances.
And he had to devise a plan to prop up a teetering financial system, as well as a faltering economy. In so doing, he collaborated with his friend Lawrence H. Summers, then the director of Mr. Obama’s National Economic Council and a sworn enemy of self-doubt.
The post of Treasury secretary demands punishing global travel, and painful obsequiousness to Congress. By one count, Mr. Geithner has testified before congressional committees 52 times, with many more private meetings, and House Republicans would love to double that number this year.
Over the past three years, no public official, save the president, has endured a more grueling pace.
The father of a college-aged daughter and a son in high school, Mr. Geithner has spent almost his entire life in public service. His means are relatively modest; his net worth is estimated in official disclosures between $770,000 and $1.8 million.
In addition to the economic challenges he confronts, Mr. Geithner has some internal problems at the Treasury. There are at least a half-dozen important jobs that are unfilled, partly because of the cumbersome confirmation process, and also the remarkable slowness the administration has exhibited on such matters.
It also isn’t clear what Mr. Obama would do if Mr. Geithner expressed a wish to leave. Presidents Lyndon Johnson, through coercion, and Bill Clinton, through charm, would have talked a valued cabinet member out of such thoughts. That’s not the Obama style. During the 2008 campaign, one associate said he “travels light” when it comes to people.
There would be no natural replacement. Knowledgeable observers say the first two names that come to mind would be the former White House chief of staff, Erskine Bowles, and the current occupant of that post, William M. Daley; both lack Mr. Geithner’s financial and international expertise.
The secretary’s experience with China goes back to his youth, when his father was posted there for a time, and he is a favorite of the financial elite in Beijing.
Although U.S.-China relations are fraught with strategic and political tensions, economic ties have been comparatively smooth and improving over the past two years; Mr. Geithner and Vice Premier Wang Qishan have a real rapport.
In Europe, Mr. Geithner’s nudging on the debt crisis has ruffled some feathers; still, many top European officials express respect for his views and expertise.
At home, his relations with the Federal Reserve chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, recall the celebrated alliance of Robert E. Rubin, Mr. Summers and Alan Greenspan, the former Federal Reserve chairman, in the 1990s.
The difference is, this time, given the political heat from the Republican right, neither man talks about the relationship much.
The Treasury secretary’s political acumen has improved, as have his once acrimonious relations with congressional Republicans.
“You can have a conversation with Tim Geithner,” said Paul D. Ryan of Wisconsin, the House Budget Committee chairman.
His political instincts, however, fall well short of his financial ones. He’s no James Baker, who was President Ronald Reagan’s astute Treasury chief. Mr. Geithner was genuinely surprised by the outrage on Main Street over the bonuses paid to executives of American International Group after the insurer was bailed out by taxpayers.
While he no longer has the deer in the headlights look he had in early public appearances, he sometimes still comes across as a passionless technocrat; in private sessions with politicians, the news media and business leaders, he’s much more effective and personable, displaying a wickedly sharp sense of humor.
His role model for the current job probably is his friend and predecessor, Mr. Rubin. There hasn’t been a secretary since Mr. Rubin left 12 years ago who possessed Mr. Geithner’s influence with both the financial community and the president.
Still, if Mr. Geithner were to leave after the debt crisis, the legacy would be incomplete. That’s one reason that people who know him believe he will stay.
Another is his genuine loyalty to Mr. Obama and a sense of pride in the administration’s accomplishments.
More so than all but a handful of people in the higher echelons of government, Mr. Geithner is genuinely devoted to public service. It’s in the genes. His father was a top Ford Foundation official, mainly in Asia — where he supervised Mr. Obama’s mother — and his uncle, Jonathan Moore, was a leading Republican official and Harvard College dean.
When the debt ceiling ruckus is resolved — probably close to the Aug. 2 deadline — Mr. Geithner will be exhausted. He’ll rest a few days and then in all likelihood come back for the final battles of this Obama term.
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