Populist Advance in Finland Could Endanger Bailouts

That day came on Sunday, when Finnish voters awarded 19 percent of their ballots to the nationalist and populist True Finn Party, which is highly skeptical of bailouts for countries like Greece, Ireland and, most pertinently, Portugal. The results made the True Finns the odds-on favorites to become coalition partners in a future government.

“Sunday’s results are a clear warning shot to those who had thought that European politics would not be overly affected by the crisis in the periphery,” Frank Engels and Fran?ois Cabou, analysts for Barclays Capital, wrote Monday in a research note. A bailout for as much as $115 billion for Portugal was thrown into doubt by the vote, since the rescue requires unanimous approval by the euro zone’s 17 members.

The True Finns raised their share of seats in the 200-member Parliament to 39 from the 5 they had won in the 2007 election, sharply changing the balance of power in Finnish politics.

While leaders of the other Finnish parties began to discuss ways to mitigate the damage, European politicians reacted with dismay at the election results and sought to distance themselves from the True Finns.

Wilfried Martens, a Belgian politician who is president of the largest grouping of European parties from the center-right, the European People’s Party, said it was “disheartening to see a populist party rise to third place in Finland.”

In Berlin, officials played down fears that Finland would undermine efforts to help Portugal, also citing its traditionally pro-European stance.

“Finland had always worked toward the success of Europe, regardless of what government was in power,” said Christoph Steegmans, the deputy government spokesman in Germany. “Any agreements were always kept, and we are betting that that way will continue.”

The True Finns ran on a platform that was hostile to the recent financial bailouts of Ireland, Greece and the agreement reached this month to aid Portugal. Those bailouts were meant to put an end to a sovereign debt crisis that has threatened the future of the single currency zone and raised questions about whether the disparate economies in Europe could ever be successfully integrated.

“Of course there will have to be changes,” the True Finns leader, Timo Soini, said Monday about the Portugal package, Reuters reported.

The True Finns were also critical of immigration policy, and their election gains came in the wake of advances by populist parties on the right across the European Union, including in the Netherlands, France and Sweden.

In Brussels, European Union officials on Monday rejected suggestions that their strategy for the euro zone was failing.

The vote in Finland, protests against austerity across Europe and continued volatility in financial markets should not obscure how the union had taken “measures which will enable us to get the economy on a sustainable track,” Pia Ahrenkilde Hansen, a spokeswoman for the European Commission, said in Brussels.

She also said the commission was “fully confident” that Finland would continue to honor its commitment to participate in contributing to the European Financial Stability Facility, set up last year to provide financial assistance to euro zone members in difficulty.

The pro-Europe National Coalition in Finland, led by Finance Minister Jyrki Katainen, has strongly supported efforts to remedy problems in the euro zone. He still could lead a future government, while Mr. Soini of the True Finns could agree to a compromise on participating in bailouts in exchange for posts in the next government.

If Finland were to balk at helping Portugal, that would force other countries to make up the balance of the loan guarantees, potentially raising hackles in Germany and other countries, where the cost of the bailouts has also become a source of political tension.

James Kanter reported from Brussels, and Matthew Saltmarsh from Paris.