Poll Finds Egyptians Full of Hope About the Future

The poll, conducted by the Pew Research Center and based on face-to-face interviews with 1,000 Egyptians, is the first credible survey since the revolution lifted many restrictions on free expression. It is also the first to directly address Western debate over whether the revolution might drift toward Islamic radicalism.

The poll found about 30 percent of Egyptians have a favorable view of Islamic fundamentalism and about the same number sympathize with its opponents. About a quarter have mixed views.

That range was exemplified by attitudes toward the Muslim Brotherhood, the previously outlawed Islamist group.

Many in the West have assumed that as the best-organized nongovernmental organization in Egyptian society, the Muslim Brotherhood might quickly dominate Egyptian politics — a view long espoused by the Mubarak government. The poll shows the Muslim Brotherhood is indeed regarded favorably by about three in four Egyptians, receiving very favorable ratings from 37 percent of respondents and somewhat favorable ratings from an additional 38 percent.

But that put the group roughly at a par with the April 6 Movement, a new and relatively secular and progressive youth group that played a leading role in organizing the revolution. Seven in 10 viewed that group favorably, with 38 percent viewing it very favorably and 32 percent viewing it somewhat favorably. The poll’s margin of samplinfg error is plus or minus four percentage points.

Only 17 percent of respondents said they would like to see the Muslim Brotherhood lead the next government. Al Ghad, a liberal party led by Ayman Nour, a formerly jailed presidential candidate, was favored to lead the new government by roughly the same number. And one in five supported the New Wafd Party, a secular liberal party that was recognized under Mr. Mubarak.

Nearly two-thirds of Egyptians said civil law should strictly follow the Koran, but then the existing Constitution of Egypt’s largely secular state said that it is already based on the Koran.

Sobhi Saleh, a prominent member of the Muslim Brotherhood and a former parliamentary candidate, dismissed the poll’s findings as wildly overstating the support for other parties. Only the Brotherhood has a broad organization and a well-known platform, he argued, predicting success at the polls. “These findings are wrong, and it’s only a matter of two months until you see that,” he said.

Amr El Shobaki, a political analyst in the Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, said the results reflected an Egyptian habit of shrugging off apparent contradictions between a traditionalist faith and modern lifestyles. “That’s why people can have a favorable impression of the April 6 Movement and like the Brotherhood at the same time,” he said. “Average people enjoy a high degree of reconciliation between Islam and modern ideas. So they are conservative but not extreme.”

The poll also found that a majority of Egyptians, 54 percent, want to annul the 1979 peace treaty with Israel that has been a cornerstone of Egyptian foreign policy and the region’s stability. The finding squares with the overwhelming anecdotal evidence that Egyptians feel Israel has not lived up to its commitments in its treatment of the Palestinians. But more than a third of respondents, 36 percent, favored keeping the treaty, and the poll did not ask the more controversial question of whether Egyptians wanted to sacrifice the three decades of peace they have enjoyed along the border.

Mr. Saleh of the Muslim Brotherhood, however, said he supported maintaining the treaty.

“There is a difference between the people’s feelings toward Israel and their political assessment,” he said “Those who want to maintain the treaty are motivated by Egypt’s interest. It is not because they accept Israel.”

The poll found the military extraordinarily popular, reflecting its decisive role in ultimately pushing Mr. Mubarak aside, and 9 in 10 approved of the work of Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, Mr. Mubarak’s former defense minister and the current head of the interim military council running the country.

But it was conducted in the two weeks that ended April 7, before recent controversies over the military’s use of force against demonstrators in Tahrir Square in Cairo. Still, the results may raise concern for Egyptian liberals anxious to see the military relinquish power to civilian authority. Only 27 percent of respondents called that very important.

Among presidential candidates, the poll confirmed the widespread belief that Amr Moussa, the head of the Arab League and a former Mubarak foreign minister, is the front-runner. About 9 in 10 have a favorable view of him, including 41 percent who have a very favorable view. Seven in 10 had a favorable view of Mr. Nour, another candidate known for challenging Mr. Mubarak and going to jail, with 32 percent viewing him very favorably. And 57 percent had a favorable view of Mohamed ElBaradei, a Nobel Prize winner and former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency. But many complain that he has spent most of his career outside his native Egypt, and 39 percent of Egyptians reported an unfavorable view of him.

None of the three is considered an Islamist.

Mr. Shobaki, the political analyst, argued that the core of Mr. Moussa’s support was the majority who did not participate in the revolution but voted for a constitutional referendum. “These are the people who are looking for stability, want their economic conditions to be improved and do not necessarily want to see drastic changes,” Mr. Shobaki said.

The poll found Egyptians remarkably bullish on their revolution and, in its aftermath, their future. Nearly two-thirds said they were satisfied with their country’s direction, and 6 in 10 were optimistic about the future. Although open political elections would be a novelty in Egyptian history, most had some degree of faith that they had won democracy. Forty-one percent said a free and fair choice in the next election was very likely, and 43 percent said it was somewhat likely. Only 16 percent said it was unlikely.

Fifty-four percent said a democratic government was worth the risk of political instability, while only 32 percent held the opposite view, the Mubarak government’s mantra that stability was more important.

But asked about their most important concerns for the future, the broadest majority — 82 percent — said improving economic conditions was very important; 79 percent said a fair judicial system was; 63 percent said law and order, the same portion that said freedom of speech; and only 55 percent said honest elections.

Slightly fewer, 50 percent, said it was very important for religiously based parties to be able to participate in government.